A statewide survey of high efficacy primary voters conducted July 10-12 shows that, despite heavy ad buys in the gubernatorial primary, Republicans in Arizona are still overwhelmingly undecided on who will be their party’s nominee to succeed Gov. Jan Brewer.
The survey shows that 44.8 percent of voters who participated in at least two of the last three Republican primary elections in Arizona are undecided on the race with another 5 percent that didn’t know or refused to answer.
The live telephone survey was conducted by HighGround Inc. of 400 high efficacy Republican primary voters with a 4.9 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence interval. If the Republican primary election for Governor were held at the time of the survey, who would you vote for:
17.3 percent said Doug Ducey,
15.3 percent for Christine Jones,
9.8 percent for Scott Smith,
3.5 percent for Ken Bennett,
3.0 percent for Andrew Thomas,
1.5 percent for Frank Riggs,
44.8 percent are undecided, 5 percent are undecided or refused to answer.
“We believe the results show that the Republican primary is a wide open race between the top three candidates - Ducey, Jones and Smith,” said Paul Bentz of HighGround, Inc., who has conducted surveys for the firm and its clients for the past 10 years. “With just two weeks left before early balloting begins, nearly half of the likely primary voters are still undecided. It looks like it is going to be a marathon to earn every vote, not a jog to the finish line for any of these candidates.”
Immigration Now Higher than at the Peak of SB1070
In addition to measuring the candidates head to head, the survey also delved into the issue of immigration and border security. Voter interest has spiked because of the crisis of child migration into the U.S. from several Central American countries.
Independent numbers growing
The final day to register to vote in the upcoming primary election was on July 28. Early voting officially begins when ballots are sent out this week.
Early voting has turned the tides of elections with candidates having to get their message out quickly. The actual election day is on Aug. 26, but thousands are expected to vote much sooner.
According to election officials, independents in Pima County and Maricopa County are going to have a big impact on the upcoming elections. In Pima County, 26,000 have already requested early ballot and another 50,000 requested early ballots in Maricopa County.
In the past, independents haven’t had as big of an impact on primary elections due to the confusion over if they could vote, and if they did, what party could they vote in.
As the election process continues, voters can get more information online at www.azsos.gov.